I've just been looking at the reports they've released this week about the economic impact of the World Cup and there are some mind-blowing figures.FIFA projected record revenues of more than $11 billion for the 2023-2026 cycleand with the new 48-team format, everything points to them having nailed it or even surpassed it.
What catches my attention most is how the numbers have changed compared to Qatar 2022. There we talked about a "luxury" World Cup with an enormous infrastructure cost, but this North American one is another story: stadiums already built, massive audiences, and a market of 500 million peopleLet's look at the data:
Concept | Qatar 2022 | 2026 World Cup (projection) |
|---|---|---|
Total cycle revenue | ~$7.5 billion | ~$11-13 billion |
Teams | 32 | 48 |
Matches | 64 | 104 |
Venues | 8 | 16 (3 countries) |
Expected average attendance | ~50.000 | ~65.000-70.000 |
FIFA revenue per World Cup cycle (billions USD)
6.4
Russia 2018
7.5
Qatar 2022
11.5
2026 World Cup (proj.)
Russia 2018
Qatar 2022
2026 World Cup (proj.)
And here comes the question I put to you: Is this business model sustainable or are we facing a bubble?
On the one hand, 104 matches means much more television content, more sponsors, more tickets sold. On the other, there are critical voices saying that quality drops, that players arrive exhausted at the end of the season, and that the public gets saturated with so much football.
Mind you, not everything is rosy: television rights in Europe have risen by 30% and platforms are already warning that they won't be able to pay the same in the next cycle. If the TV rights bubble bursts, football as we know it changes. We'll see what happens with the new Champions League format and wages.
I, who have been a lifelong football lover, have mixed feelings. On the one hand, more football = more happiness. On the other, the calendar is increasingly saturated and players complain. Also, with FIFA going after the money, I'm afraid the essence will be lost.
Do you think the 48-team World Cup has been a great business for FIFA or a bubble that will end up bursting?
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And don't forget the craziest part: that FIFA wanted to sell 20% of the World Cup to private investors (and that UEFA stopped it) shows how far the business goes. We are seeing the most global and most commercialized football in history, for better and for worse. What do you all think? Do you think it's good that 3 countries organize such a huge World Cup, or would you prefer the classic 32-team format?
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