Hello, forumers! With the 2026 World Cup wrapped up and the football hangover still in our bodies, it's time to take stock. While some celebrate Messi's fifth star, others wonder what the tournament has left us at the national team level: who has shown they have a project for the next cycle? Which national teams are going to disappear from the map?
I've been looking at the performance data and watch out, there are things that haven't been talked about that much. The host responded perfectly at home, the surprise teams made a splash, and the usual big shots have been left with a bitter taste. Let's break it down:
- 🏟️ Host effect in the USA: they arrived as hosts and have left as one of the tournament's most in-form teams. That is no coincidence.
- ⚡ The surprises: two teams that no one had on their radar have stood up to the heavyweights and stolen the headlines.
- 💀 The disappointments: the European champion has turned in a forgettable performance, and there is a 'best in the world' who has experienced his worst tournament as an international player.
And here comes the good part, the chart with the possession and expected goals (xG) data of the quarterfinalists, which is where you can see who has played football and who has merely survived:
Total xG of the 2026 World Cup by national team (knockout stage)
Argentina
18.2Spain
16.9USA
14.4France
13.8England
12.9Morocco
11.7Japan
10.9Senegal
8.6
Watch out, this chart is pure gold: Argentina has generated more than 18 xG in the playoff, almost double that of Senegal, and that's playing against serious opponents. It's not just Messi: it's that Scaloni's team creates chances out wide, through the middle, from set pieces... It's a goal-scoring machine.
Watch the stat: Argentina's cumulative xG in the qualifiers was a 22% higher than the second-placed team, and that despite facing France and Brazil along the way. We're looking at a team that doesn't just win, but deserves to win. That, in international football, is very hard to sustain.
And what about the teams that have come to learn? Because this 2026 World Cup has made it clear that the gap is narrowing. An Asian team and an African team in the quarterfinals is no coincidence; it's the result of years of work in the youth categories.
But we also have to talk about those who have made fools of themselves. I'm not going to name names because you know me, but the one who has the best player in the world in its ranks and didn't get past the group stage knows who they are. 😏
Here I leave you a visual summary of how the international team landscape looks according to the tournament's performance coefficient (matches won, goals, and level of the opponents faced):
Now the controversial little question that we like in this forum:
What has more merit: winning the World Cup like Argentina did, or reaching the quarterfinals from nothing like the surprise teams did? And who do you think is going to plummet in the coming years? Because there are teams that have played the tournament of their lives and then disappear...
Be careful with hasty conclusions. The last team that unexpectedly reached the quarterfinals (in 2022) didn't even qualify for the next Copa América. Breakout teams are usually a flash in the pan if they don't have structure behind them.
I'm clear about it: international football has changed forever and the next cycle is going to be a war. What do you think? See you in the thread? 😉⚽
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